Responsible Party and Year Completed: RAND, 2015
Link: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR740-1.html
Status: Completed
Contact: Daniel Egel – [email protected]
Executive Summary:
This study evaluates the economic ramifications of various potential futures for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the next decade, comparing five different scenarios—a two-state solution, coordinated unilateral withdrawal, uncoordinated unilateral withdrawal, nonviolent resistance, and violent uprising—against the backdrop of the ongoing impasse. The analysis concludes that a two-state solution provides by far the best economic outcomes for both Israelis and Palestinians, with GDP per capita for Palestinians to increase by close to 36% and 5% for Israelis compared to projected baseline from 2015-2024. Although smaller in percentage terms, Israel gains more in absolute terms from moving to a two-state solution than do Palestinians ($123 billion vs. $50 billion).
RESEARCH FINDINGS:
- A two-state solution provides by far the best economic outcomes for both Israelis and Palestinians.
- A return to violence would have profoundly negative economic consequences for both parties.
- In most scenarios, the value of economic opportunities gained or lost by both parties is much larger than expected changes in direct costs.
POLICY INSIGHTS:
- Intangible factors, such as each party’s security and sovereignty aspirations, are critical considerations in understanding and resolving the impasse.
- Taking advantage of the economic opportunities of a two-state solution would require substantial investments from public, private, and international parties.
OTHER:
- The study provided a cost calculator so assumption could be changed and detailed research into alternatives could be conducted by all parties.
- It was hoped the consequences of various policy options would help narrow the differences between the parties and further dialogue.